- My age:
- My sex:
- What I prefer to drink:
- In my spare time I love:
- Driving a car
She was dismayed when she realized that what she wanted to imagine, what she was struggling to bring into being, now seemed beyond her reach. Was it improbable or impossible? What could she dream in a present of imminent environmental catastrophe? How could she sculpt the contours of a future when the future, any future, had been foreclosed? Carby came to the University of Rochester UR as the Distinguished Visiting Humanist, no one knew global pandemic and large-scale anti-racist protests awaited us one year later in the spring, summer, and now fall of Joel Burges, Alisa V.
The sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric cars tipped over the two-million-vehicle mark for the first time in In this Deloitte report, we take a new approach to market segmentation and exemplify how to seize opportunities and manage risks. Before the COVID pandemic shook up the automotive industry — along with every other industry — electric vehicles were moving steadily into the spotlight.
The combined annual sales of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles tipped over the two-million-vehicle mark for the first time in This much-anticipated milestone may have become overshadowed by economic uncertainty and changed consumer priorities, but there is value in taking stock of the electric vehicle market even now. Explore the Future of Mobility collection.
Go straight to smart. Get the Deloitte Insights app. Since Deloitte last presented a forecast for electric vehicle EV salesin Januarythe EV market has made great strides, and not just in terms of sales. Consumer attitudes have evolved. Government interventions have pushed forward and pulled back.
In this context, a revised forecast based on updated data is needed. By examining the current state of the EV market worldwide and noting the many factors fostering growth in various directions Part 1 of this reportwe have formed conclusions about how the market will take shape over the next decade.
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The ificant growth of EVs leading up to will present major opportunities and challenges for traditional original equipment manufacturers OEMsnew-entrant OEMs, captive finance companies and dealerships. In particular, traditional OEMs will find insights in this report that can help them re-prioritise their customers and strategies in a volatile competitive landscape.
Paramount to seizing opportunities and managing risks is taking a new approach to market segmentation. We detail one such approach in Part 2 and apply it as a use case to one major market, the United Kingdom, to inform and inspire OEMs and other stakeholders globally. Looking back at BEVs inthey ed for 74 per cent of global EV sales: an increase of six percentage points 31m seeking a future This rise was partly stimulated by new, stricter European emissions standards that persuaded manufacturers to favour the production and sale of zero-emission vehicles.
Another factor is the advanced state of the BEV market in China, compared to the rest of the world. Since the last time Deloitte reported on EV sales, ificant regional disparities in growth have surfaced. The speed of recovery is expected to vary by region. But generally speaking, the course seems clear for growth over the next decade, despite the potential lasting impact of COVID on total car sales over the next three years.
The Nordics and the Netherlands continued to lead the way; Norway achieved 56 per cent market share, and two of the top ten best-selling cars in Holland were BEVs. Favourable government policies and a change in consumer attitudes were the catalysts, driven primarily by growing concerns about climate change.
The United Kingdom committed to a target of net zero emissions byand proposed a ban on the sale of all polluting vehicles by Despite the growth seen inmainstream adoption of EVs has been, so far, hindered by the limited of models available to the European market and consumer perceptions regarding insufficient charging infrastructure in some regions. The outbreak of COVID and national lockdown measures impacted total car sales in Europe, as showrooms closed their doors and manufacturers halted production, but EV sales have held up well in comparison to their internal combustion engine ICE equivalents.
In the first four 31m seeking a future ofin the European Union EUdemand for new passenger cars contracted by China continues to dominate the EV market, ing for half of all vehicle sales. Sales in the second half of turned out lower than ly expected after some subsidies available to Chinese consumers were halved. Chinese authorities announced they would refrain from more subsidy cuts in As a result of the COVID pandemic and lockdown measures in place, China saw a 45 per cent decline in passenger car sales in Q1 By MarchChinese factories had recovered to achieve a production rate of 75 per cent, with 86 per cent of employees returning to work.
By Aprilproduction had basically been restored to pre-pandemic levels. Although sales have remained depressed in certain Chinese provinces, recovery has been accelerated by pent-up demand, favourable policies put in place by Chinese authorities and the ability to purchase cars online; total sales actually reflected year-on-year growth in April. After an encouraging start tofalling fuel prices in the United States a market that already enjoys comparatively cheap private transportation led to a disappointing second half of the year for EV sales.
The United States EV market is almost singlehandedly being carried by the success of the Tesla Model 3 — alone responsible for almost half of all EV sales.
As in Europe and China, United States car sales fell sharply in the first three months of as the pandemic took a toll on demand; job losses increased and large swathes of the population were ordered to stay home. The recovery in EV sales is likely to be slower in the United States than in other major regions, as manufacturers delay the launch of new cars and consumers take advantage of low oil prices.
The world outside Europe, China and the United States is lagging behind in terms of EV sales, for various reasons: a lack of government commitment to EVs, insufficient or unsuitable charging infrastructure, unavailability of EVs and cultural differences regarding mobility models. For example, Japan is a major global car market, but new car sales are dominated by domestic OEMs that have not yet developed the same range of EVs as their European and Chinese competitors.
With one eye firmly on progress so far, Deloitte has analysed the most recent indicators to develop an up-to-date prediction of the EV market for the next ten years. By contrast, PHEV sales are expected to reach 5. Our global EV forecast is for a compound annual growth rate of 29 per cent achieved over the next ten years: Total EV sales growing from 2. EVs would secure approximately 32 per cent of the total market share for new car sales see figure 2. However, the pace of recovery is forecasted to be a result of a slowdown in ICE sales; EVs will continue to have a positive trajectory during the COVID recovery period and may well end up capturing a disproportionate share of the market in the short term.
Deloitte expects that by China will hold 49 per cent of the global EV market, Europe will for 27 per cent, and the United States will hold 14 per cent. The share of new car sales taken up by EVs will vary considerably across markets see figure 3. We forecast China to achieve a domestic market share of around 48 per cent by — almost double that of the United States 27 per centand Europe should achieve 42 per cent. Growth in Northern and Western Europe is expected to outstrip that in Southern and Eastern Europe as wealthier countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Nordic countries likely invest more in infrastructure and offer greater cash and tax incentives to accelerate initial growth.
Beyondwe expect the rate of 31m seeking a future in EV sales to slow. Some markets will be unable to support the transition to EVs in the same way that wealthier nations will over the next decade. Consider that, beyondone of the key factors in sustaining growth will be the implementation of suitable charging infrastructure.
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This requires multi-billion-dollar capital investments — achievable in some markets through a combination of public and private investment, but unlikely to be achieved uniformly around the world. In countries that cannot invest in charging infrastructure, we expect the market for ICE vehicles to remain for some time.
The ificant shift in expected volume 31m seeking a future BEVs and PHEVs by is based on four factors: consumer sentiment, policy and regulation, OEM strategy and the role of corporate companies. All four of these factors saw major changes in direction over the last year, prior to the emergence of COVID, and have since been shaped further by the pandemic. However, as the barriers to adoption are rapidly removed, EVs are increasingly becoming a realistic and viable option. Figure 4 shows how consumer concerns regarding BEVs have changed, and in many instances diminished, since From tothere were some noticeable changes in consumer attitudes toward EVs.
Driving range has remained the -one concern in Germany, and became one in France, but there are now fewer consumers citing it as a concern in those two markets. Elsewhere, the lack of charging infrastructure has become the top priority for consumers, reflecting the possibility that they are starting to see EVs as a realistic option and are considering the practicalities of ownership.
Over the next few years, we expect some barriers to be completely removed. The expected proliferation of commercial EVs such as vans, trucks, lorries should also play a part in reassurance, as will the rise of mass-transit options such as electric buses.
V for vendetta knew our future would be a bleak one
Measures that governments take in their COVID recovery plans could also affect consumer sentiment. Government intervention continues to play an important role in driving EV sales, as shown by the successes in Norway, fluctuating sales in the Netherlands and changing fortunes of the Chinese EV market. Several policies and regulations are helping encourage the growth of EV adoption:. These differ across markets and are under constant review and consultation by governments.
Recent Deloitte analysis shows that with the phasing-in of new European CO 2 emission targets, which will be fully implemented in and bring punitive fines, 22 half of car manufacturers are facing related penalty payments. City governments have led the way on imposing bans, or punitive taxes, on users of older combustion engines, addressing increasing concerns about toxic air pollution.
Throughout we expect this trend to continue as cities worldwide grapple with air pollution and confront their relationships with combustion engines — and private cars in general. Many governments have offered compelling financial incentives to make the electric switch, such as providing cash subsidies to consumers buying low-emission vehicles, reducing taxes on EVs and increasing or maintaining taxes on ICE vehicles.
But as EVs reach price parity with ICE vehicles, some governments have explored rolling back such incentives; this can have a dramatic and immediate effect on EV sales, as seen by the recent fluctuations in sales in China and the Netherlands.
Instead, in light of COVID, the need to stimulate total new car purchases has prompted a range of new financial incentives introduced across major markets, some of which clearly favour EVs. Meanwhile, in China, EV subsidies and tax break policies set to expire in were extended to in a direct response to the economic impact of COVID New models have been announced, production targets increased and sales targets moved forward and multiplied. In the short term, COVID may hinder some OEMs in their reach for these targets, as they conserve cash and divert investments elsewhere in the business.
But in the long term, we expect these targets to continue as priorities for OEMs. The impact of the investment and targets shown in figure 5 will represent a seismic market shift over the next decade, in terms of availability and affordability of models. Recent company announcements have made it clear that there will be substantially more EV models commercially available over the next decade than ly thought.
According to statistics cited by the European Federation for Transport and Environment, Europe should expect 33 new models in22 in30 in and 33 in Achieving price parity with, or even savings over, ICE vehicles will play a big role in speeding up EV adoption, especially as model ranges and marketing priorities adapt to manufacturer emission targets.
A key takeaway from monthly sales figures in is just how sensitive consumers are to the relative total cost of ownership when it comes to EVs versus ICE vehicles. This includes upfront costs as seen in the Chinese EV sales drop when subsidies were cut and short-term costs, like fuel as seen in the United States, where EV sales dipped right along with fuel prices.